by Karen Ocamb

The post-Super Tuesday battle in the 2008 presidential race will be about numbers: Who has the most money to go on? Who has the most delegates to actually win the nomination? Could the candidate with the most popular votes lose the party nomination to the candidate with the most delegates—an intramural repeat of the Gore-Bush battle in 2000?

Staggering, mind numbing and catalysts for the kind of glazed-eyes that lead to inertia and denial, numbers also underscore the urgency at the heart of the Democratic and Republican races. Just consider the three key issues on voters’ minds: the war in Iraq, the economy and healthcare.

With 3,945 American dead (as of Feb. 3) and $400 billion dollars— $12.8 million every hour—spent so far, according to CNN, who has the best plan to deal with the war in Iraq?

We have more than $9.2 trillion in national debt ($1.5 billion per day since Sept. 29, 2006, according to the U.S. National Debt Clock), 17,000 jobs lost in January alone, and the sub-prime mortgage crisis predicted to cost black and Hispanic homeowners up to $256 billion (the worst economic hit for minorities in U.S. history, according to a report by United for a Fair Economy). Meanwhile, the stock market roller coasters and Exxon-Mobil (which produces about 3 percent of the world’s oil) posted a record annual profit of $40.6 billion. So who can wrestle an out-of-control economy teetering on recession?

And who has the best plan to rein in healthcare costs—$2 trillion in 2005, according to the National Coalition on Health Care—with 50 percent of all bankruptcy filings partially due to medical expenses?

While the American public, including LGBT people in every age and income bracket, may not know the numbers, they feel the solid rock beneath their feet beginning to soften and turn to sand. LGBT voters are among those crying out for change and a fix for America’s broken government.

IN Los Angeles magazine hit the streets on Super Tuesday, with the Democratic race too close to call and with Arizona Sen. John McCain, sporting endorsements from former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, leading former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Back-of-the-pack candidates Mike Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas, and Texas Rep. Ron Paul vowed to continue the race.

Going forward requires money for campaign staff, travel and commercial ads.

Romney, a former venture capitalist, is reportedly worth up to $250 million. Aside from his personal contribution of $35 million, Romney raised $54 million in contributions in 2007 and spent $87.6 million, The Associated Press reported.

Paul, who has won over flocks of libertarian, independent and anti-war followers over the Internet, raised $4 million in January; he raised $19.5 million from October to December of last year.

McCain, the 71-year-old once broke and now new frontrunner, had to take out a loan last November—with a cynical stipulation. “To survive [to reach the New Hampshire Primary], he offered his fundraising lists as collateral for a $3 million line of credit from a local bank. But obtaining the loan required an unusual extra step: He had to take out a special life insurance policy in case he did not survive the campaign,” the Washington Post reported Feb. 1.

AP reported that McCain raised $37.5 million in 2007 and spent $39.1 million. Thanks to the win in the Florida primary, he raised $7 million in the first three weeks of January.

On the Democratic side, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama raised $32 million in January alone, AP reported, noting “Obama's $1 million-a-day rate is the largest haul ever by a presidential candidate during a competitive primary.” The campaign reported that Obama attracted 224,000 new donors last month for a total of more than 700,000 overall.

According to end-of-year financial reports filed with the Federal Election Commission, Obama and Clinton each raised more than $100 million last year, AP reports.

Clinton's FEC report showed total contributions for 2007 were $107 million (including $19.5 million set aside for the general election), and she spent $80.3 million for the year.

Obama, meanwhile, reported contributions for 2007 totaling $102 million, of which he spent $84.5 million.

“We think that the strength of our financial position and the number of donors does speak to financial sustainability if [the race] ends up going through March and April,” Obama campaign manager David Plouffe told the AP. “We think we will have the financial resources to conduct vigorous campaigns in the states to come.”

The Clinton campaign downplayed the fiscal picture. “Once people start voting, that’s a more important measure of performance,” Clinton spokesman Jay Carson told the AP. Money is “one of the most important markers in the period before actual voters start voting. We’re no longer in the invisible primary, we’re in the real primary.”

But that “real primary” can also bring surprises, such as the sway of uncommitted delegates, superdelegates and the flipping of delegates who might have pledged to one candidate but switch to another by the convention.

Pledged delegates are those won by candidates in the primaries and caucuses who pledge their support at the national conventions, according to the New York Times.

Superdelegates are Democratic officeholders and party officials who are guaranteed seats at the national convention in Denver, Colo., in August, but are not committed to a candidate.

In the Democratic races where delegates are awarded on a proportional basis, a candidate may win the popular vote—and therefore appear to have won the state—but the losing candidate may actually walk away with more delegates.

That appears to be what happened after the Jan. 18 Nevada Caucus, for instance, where Clinton won the popular vote 50.7 percent (5,355 votes) to Obama’s 45.2 percent (4,773 votes). But the Obama campaign argued that they had won 13 pledged delegates to 12 for Clinton. Though AP and NBC concurred, the Clinton camp and the state Democratic Party disagreed.

“The calculations of national convention delegates being circulated are based upon an assumption that delegate preferences will remain the same between now and April 2008 [when the delegates will be decided],” said Jill Derby, the chairwoman of Nevada’s Democratic party. “We look forward to our county and state conventions, where we will choose the delegates for the nominee that Nevadans support.”

The magic number to win the Democratic nomination is 2,025 out of a total of 4,049 delegates. Of that total, 3,253 are pledged delegates, meaning they’ve been elected or selected on the state or local level to support a particular candidate. But the pledged delegate is not really bound to that candidate, so candidates are allowed on a state-by-state basis to review the pledge list and delete those deemed an unreliable vote.

There are also 796 superdelegates—usually members of Congress, governors, Democratic National Committee (DNC) members or Democratic Party leaders—who are not bound to a particular candidate.

Going into Super Tuesday, the first “national primary”—with 22 primaries and caucuses at stake—CNN reported that Clinton had 232 delegates—48 pledged and 184 superdelegates. Obama had 158 delegates—63 pledged and 95 superdelegates. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, who dropped out of the race and has not yet endorsed a candidate, had 26 delegates pledged to him—many of whom have since gone to other candidates.

The magic number of delegates to win the GOP nomination is 1,191 out of a total of 2,380 delegates. The pledged delegates are elected or selected at a state or local level, based on their support for a candidate. There are 463 unpledged members of the Republican National Committee (RNC) who have seats at the convention but can vote for the candidate of their choice.

Going into Super Tuesday, CNN reported that McCain had 97 total delegates—95 pledged and two superdelegates. Romney had 92 delegates—85 pledged and seven superdelegates. Huckabee had 29—26 pledged and 3 superdelegates. Paul had six pledged delegates. (Like different poll results, delegate counts can also be confusing; consider that AP divvied up the delegates before Super Tuesday this way: Romney led with 59 delegates, followed by Huckabee with 40 and McCain trailing with 36.)

On Feb. 5, Super Tuesday, there were more than 1,000 delegates at stake for the Republicans. Delegate-rich California held a “Republican-only” primary and awarded winners in congressional districts. But other big states, such as New York, New Jersey, Missouri and Arizona, are “winner-take-all” and gave all their delegates to the candidate who won the popular vote.

The delegate selection system allows candidates with sufficient resources to stay alive. Ohio Republican Chairman Robert Bennett told the AP, “Somebody’s going to have some big wins [on Super Tuesday], but you’re going to go into March 4, and you’re not going to have an apparent (GOP) nominee.”

Ohio has 85 Republican delegates up for grabs on March 4, when Texas also holds its primary, with 137 GOP delegates. Before that, there are contests in Maryland and Virginia on Feb. 12 and Wisconsin on Feb. 19. Another big state—Pennsylvania—holds its primary on April 22.

Nearly 1,700 Democratic delegates were at stake on Feb. 5, but unlike the GOP “winner-take-all” system, the Democrats awarded their delegates proportionally on the basis of who wins the popular vote in individual congressional districts and then the rest based on the statewide count.

Of the biggest states, California had 370 delegates to allocate, with New York awarding 232 delegates and Illinois 153.

Meanwhile, the DNC has nearly 800 elected officials and DNC members, which means the superdelegates will play a significant wildcard role. According to the AP, which interviewed more than 90 percent of the superdelegates identified by the party, most will remain uncommitted until after their states vote, and they are still free to change their minds at the convention.

Then there’s the problem with Florida and Michigan. Because those state legislatures voted to move up their primaries in violation of Democratic party rules, the DNC stripped the states of their delegates and said they would not be seated at the convention.

Nonetheless, and in large part because of a ballot measure to cut property taxes, 1.4 million Democrats turned out to vote, as did 1.6 million Republicans, giving McCain a victory over Romney, 36-31 percent. Giuliani’s poor 15 percent showing in the state he deemed a must-win prompted him to drop out of the race.

Clinton won handily in Florida and vowed to fight to have the delegates from both Florida and Michigan seated at the convention. Florida Democratic Party Chair Karen Thurman told CBS News she also expects the Florida delegates to eventually be seated.

Also of note—but receiving far less media attention—was the news that a measure proposing a constitutional ban on same-sex marriage qualified for inclusion on the November Florida ballot.

“It’s absolutely going to drive conservatives to the polls,” said Florida Republican Party spokeswoman Erin VanSickle to the Orlando Sentinel. “It’s a Republican issue. It’s a conservative issue.” The state party chairman, Jim Greer, applauded the measure’s certification.

A similar attempt was recently launched in California, with conservative organizations using paid signature gathers to get an anti-marriage equality constitutional amendment on the November 2008 ballot, according to Equality for All, the statewide campaign to defeat such measures (see www.equalityforall.com).

Some final numbers: Gov. Schwarzenegger says California is in a fiscal crisis. According to the Sacramento Bee, the state spends about $600 million more every month than it is taking in and is facing a $3.3 billion budget deficit in the current fiscal year. The 2008-09 California budget predicts a $14.5 billion deficit.

In 2008, the numbers really matter.