This year’s crop of Oscar nominees is made up of a decidedly “alpha” bunch. We get into the ring to predict which ones will emerge victorious.

by Ken Knox

If you’re the type of person who follows trends (and really—what gay man living in Los Angeles doesn’t?), you may have noticed that many of this year’s line-up of Oscar nominees have something in common: They’re a rather manly bunch. From the rough-and-tumble virility of best actor nominees Daniel Day-Lewis, Tommy Lee Jones and Viggo Mortensen, to the tomboy trio of best supporting actress nominees Amy Ryan (as a hardened addict in Ben Affleck’s Gone Baby Gone), Tilda Swinton (as a ball-busting law woman in Michael Clayton) and Cate Blanchett (who actually appears as a man in Todd Haynes’ unconventional study of folkie Bob Dylan), right down to the nominees for sound editing, this year’s crop of Oscar contenders is downright burly in nature. Now that the writers strike is over and the Oscars are on again, we can all sit back in anticipation of the big fight and watch the sweat and blood fly. Who’s going to win, you ask? In a year in which the race is wide open, certainties are virtually non-existent, which is why we’re here to offer you our expert opinion on who will be this year’s champions.

Lawrencer Ferber
Ken Knox
Gary Kramer
Dan Loughry

Best Actor

This is by far the most rugged collection of actor nominees in a while. Heck, even Depp managed to leave behind his trademark fanciful mirth for a typically brilliant turn as a hardened barber-turned-murderer. But Depp’s turn to win is still off in the distance—Oscar rarely honors musicals—so perhaps his next collaboration with director Tim Burton will bring him a statue. Clooney deserves a nomination for his stellar work as the unhinged title character in Michael Clayton, but the film’s low profile could hurt his chances. Likewise, In the Valley of Elah’s poor showing at the box office will unfairly hinder Jones’ chances at a win. We’d love to predict that studly Mortensen (whose much-ballyhooed nude fight scene in Eastern Promises got more attention than the flick itself) would emerge victorious, but since virtually no one saw the movie, we’re betting that the trophy goes to category front-runner Day-Lewis, whose showy but solid turn as an oil man in Paul Thomas Anderson’s There Will Be Blood was the most talked-about performance of the year.

George Clooney Michael Clayton
HHH Daniel Day-Lewis There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp Sweeney Todd
H Tommy Lee Jones In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen Eastern Promises

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett Elizabeth: The Golden Age
H Julie Christie Away From Her
HHH Marion Cotillard La Vie en Rose
Laura Linney The Savages
Ellen Page Juno

After being snubbed by virtually every other award show, Linney was a surprise nominee for an Oscar, and few expect her to win. Blanchett will have a hard time overcoming her movie’s bad reviews. Page was delightfully engaging as the precocious title character in Juno, but she’ll have many other opportunities in her still-budding career to take Oscar home. While veteran actress Christie ‘s depiction of a woman in the throes of Alzheimer’s—everything the Academy loves—seems a strong contender, our pick is Cotillard, whose breakthrough performance in La Vie En Rose has garnered the actress much critical acclaim.

Best Supporting Actor

We’d love to see Hoffman take the trophy for his hilariously droll turn as a maverick CIA operative in Charlie Wilson’s War, but it will be impossible to overcome the buzz for Bardem, whose menacing performance as a murderous crook probably scared the Academy into voting for him. Dark horse potential goes to Hal Holbrook.

Casey Affleck The Assassination of Jesse James…
Javier Bardem No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour
Hoffman Charlie Wilson’s War
Hal Holbrook Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson Michael Clayton

Best Supporting Actress

HH Cate Blanchett I’m Not There
H Ruby Dee American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan Atonement
Amy Ryan Gone Baby Gone
H Tilda Swinton Michael Clayton

With no clear front-runner, this is perhaps the tightest race of the night. Here’s who won’t win: Swinton and Ronan, whose combined screen time in their respective films equals about 30 minutes. Veteran actress Dee has some steam after her surprise win at the SAG Awards and could pull off the seemingly requisite upset in this category, while Ryan’s performance as a drug-addled mother of a kidnap victim in Gone Baby Gone has won her accolades from virtually ever major critic’s organization. But we’re going with Blanchett, a prior winner in this category for playing another real-life character (Kate Hepburn). As a ’60s-era Bob Dylan, she stole the show from the likes of Richard Gere and the late Heath Ledger. Plus, drag queens know: Donning the clothing of the opposite sex is no easy task.

Best Animated Feature

H Persepolis
HH Ratatouille
H Surf’s Up

Although we think it’s a crime not to honor Marjane Satrapi’s stunning Persepolis, it’s hard to argue with the momentum of Pixar’s Ratatouille. After all, who doesn’t love a rat in the kitchen? Um, on second thought …

Best Documentary Feature

HHH No End in Sight
Operation Homecoming:
Writing the Wartime Experience
H Sicko
Taxi to the Dark Side
War/Dance

With all the emphasis on wartime drama, this category is nothing if not a battleground. The lone exception is Michael Moore’s healthcare doc, Sicko, which gets points for eschewing some of Moore’s usual bombastic chest thumping in favor of a bit more objectivity. But it will be hard to best the critically lauded No End in Sight, which gets points for revealing the incompetence that fueled President George Bush’s so-called “war on terror.”

Best Original Screenplay

Brad Bird, et al. Ratatouille
HHH Diablo Cody Juno
Tony Gilroy Michael Clayton
H Tamara Jenkins The Savages
Nancy Oliver Lars and the Real Girl

While the Coen brothers are sure to take the award in the adapted screenplay category for their treatment of No Country for Old Men, the original screenplay race is a bit less predictable. Ratatouille has been universally praised by critics everywhere as one of the best films of the year, but if the equally beloved Juno is to win any major awards, it will be here. And even though Cody’s teen-speak is a bit on the self-consciously “hip” side, look for her teen pregnancy comedy to leave the Kodak Theatre with a baby named Oscar.

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson There Will Be Blood
H Ethan Coen and Joel Coen No Country
for Old Men
Tony Gilroy Michael Clayton
Jason Reitman Juno
HHH Julian Schnabel The Diving Bell
and the Butterfly

In a perfect world, Michael Clayton’s Gilroy would be honored for his studied re-enactment of a ’70s suspense drama, but we know how these things work by now. Our pick is Schnabel for The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, which means talented whippersnapper Reitman will just have to wait his turn, as will the Coen brothers, who should’ve taken home a statuette for their work on 1995’s Fargo. Potential dark horse: Anderson, who directed Day-Lewis to deliver the performance of his career.

Best Picture

Atonement
H Juno
Michael Clayton
HH No Country for Old Men
H There Will Be Blood

First things first: A best picture nomination for Juno? We loved the movie, but the more deserving Persepolis (or hell, even Ratatouille) should have taken its place in this category. That said, Reitman’s comedy doesn’t stand a chance for the win, so it’s really a moot point. Atonement has the sweeping romance of 1996 winner The English Patient, but the reviews have been mixed and without nominations for actor, actress or director, it will have a hard time overcoming the competition. Meanwhile, Michael Clayton (the deserving winner) lacks the momentum to snag the trophy. Critical momentum counts for a lot in this category, and, while There Will Be Blood has received its fair share, the Coen brothers’ ultra-violent adaptation of Cormac McCarthy’s novel, No Country for Old Men, is the best-reviewed film of the year. Then again, look what happened with Brokeback Mountain in 2006. We’re still knocking remnants of that chip from our shoulder two years later.