Polls Matter: So IN LA Took One

An Exclusive Look At GLBT Attitudes

By Karen Ocamb

Political and opinion polls matter. But so few polls include gay people, that IN Los Angeles magazine decided to conduct one of our own. It's unscientific, and clearly a first effort -- but we hope it will prompt discussion, spur more concrete research, and add to the consideration of GLBT people as a legit minority, albeit one with an admittedly difficult-to-quantify demographic.

Why a poll? Because polls can influence public policy. Just ask California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. In a June 21 Field Poll, the first since Schwarzenegger announced plans to hold a $45 million special election Nov. 8, 58 percent of Californians said they disapproved of his job performance. Among registered voters, that number shrank to 53 percent. The Democratic-controlled Legislature didn't fare much better, with 57 percent of Californians saying they disliked that body's job performance.

The numbers had an impact. Both Schwarzenegger and Assembly Speaker Fabian Nu¯ez got the "clear message" that the governor and the Legislature need to work together to do the people's business. The subtext, of course, is a very real concern for their political futures.

Interpretation of polls by those with access to a bully pulpit can also influence policy. Consider the exit polls for the 2004 election. The media and political pundits flipped when 22 percent of respondents in the CNN poll (other polls were similar) said "moral values" was the most important issue in the election. "Economy/jobs" followed with 20 percent. Though there was only a 2 percent difference between the two issues, the Evangelical Christian push for "moral values" was seen as the wind beneath the wings of Republican President George W. Bush's 51 percent victory over Democratic Sen. John Kerry. Those numbers, plus the success of anti-gay marriage constitutional amendments in 11 states, emboldened right-wing social conservatives to claim a mandate for their religious right agenda. Meanwhile a Democratic whispering campaign tried to "scapegoat" gays for Kerry's loss.

Not everyone bought the spin. "George Bush increased his vote in 2004 over 2000 by an average of 3.1 percent nationwide. In Ohio the increase was 1 percent -- less than a third of the national average," wrote Washington Post conservative columnist Charles Krauthammer. "In the 11 states in which the gay marriage referendums were held, Bush increased his vote by less than he did in the 39 states that did not have the referendum. The great anti-gay surge was pure fiction."

But in politics, the best spin wins, often despite the facts. And that can result in very real consequences, especially for gay people.

The crux of the problem is that many, if not most Americans do not regard gay/lesbian sexual orientation as an immutable characteristic that warrants minority status as a constitutionally protected class. Rather, they think gay people express a sexual and emotional "preference" or choice about their sexual and romantic partners. Since such "lifestyle choices" are construed by the majority culture to be outside the norm, social conservatives argue that gays should not be afforded "special rights" that in any way legitimizes their "hedonistic behavior."

Most gay people, of course, experience their sexual orientation as irritably immutable -- just ask gays who've unsuccessfully tried to become heterosexual. In the 1950s, Mattachine Society founder Harry Hay considered gays a distinct minority as did the post-Stonewall Gay Liberationists. Some gay leaders thought the U.S. Supreme Court identified gays as a protected class when it ruled that Colorado's anti-gay Amendment 2 was unconstitutional.

Colorado voters passed Amendment 2 in 1992 by a margin of 53.4 percent to 46.6 percent. The referendum enjoined the state and all other governmental bodies in it from granting protected status to gays as a group and denied gays legal redress.

In overturning the referendum, Justice Anthony Kennedy, writing for the majority in Romer v. Evans, said Amendment 2 "identifies persons by a single trait and then denies them protection across the board. The resulting disqualification ... is unprecedented in our jurisprudence ... Central both to the idea of the rule of law and to our own Constitution's guarantee of equal protection is the principle that government and each of its parts remain open on impartial terms to all who seek its assistance; we must conclude that Amendment 2 classifies homosexuals not to further a proper legislative end but to make them unequal to everyone else. This Colorado cannot do. A State cannot so deem a class of persons a stranger to its laws."

To many, "a class of persons" sounded like the affirmation of minority status. Interestingly, members of a chosen religion are considered a protected class. But pollsters apparently still consider gays an "issue," not a recognized demographic. In the 2004 CNN poll, for instance, the "gay question" was asked after "Are you married with children?" and before, "Is there a gun owner in the household?"

Unlike gender and race, GLBT people often find it difficult to out themselves. But there is no "self-identified" qualifier to suggest that a poll's demographic is self-selected. In the CNN poll, 4 percent answered the gay question affirmatively -- yielding the interesting statistic that 23 percent voted for Bush and 77 percent voted for Kerry. Pollsters did not note that the GLB response was higher than the Asian (2 percent) and Jewish (3 percent) demographics.

Additionally, though GLBT organizations such as the Human Rights Campaign and the National Gay & Lesbian Task Force mightily tried to influence interpretation, few in the mainstream media listened. The 2004 Associated Press election poll, for instance, indicated that while 59 percent of voters opposed gay marriage, 35 percent favored civil unions and 27 percent favored gay marriage. Combining those percentages, the GLBT organizations noted that 62 percent of voters supported some form of legal recognition for gay relationships. That statistic has buoyed gay leaders facing "super-DOMAs," state referendums (such as three prospective California efforts now gathering ballot signatures) that eliminate all legal recognition of gay relationships, including domestic partnerships. Not given as much attention is the AP poll result showing that 17 percent of GLB voters opposed any recognition of gay relationships. "There's a surprising number of people in the gay community who oppose our rights," Brad Sears, executive director of The Williams Project, an GLBT think tank at UCLA, told IN at the time.

That the GLBT population remains an "issue" and not a demographic was underscored during the recent race for mayor of Los Angeles, a city with arguably a huge gay presence. But gays were missing from an L.A. Times pre-March 8 primary poll of voter attitudes. When asked about it, Times pollster Susan Pincus told IN that gays were not an issue in the election since all the candidates supported gay rights. Additionally, Pincus said, sometimes the gay question is asked but might be cut or not included in the reporting if there is not enough space in the story or in the sidebar. Pincus also noted that, with a national voting population of between 3-5 percent, gays are statistically insignificant.

Nonetheless, Pincus included gays in the Times primary exit poll where gays registered 8 percent, higher than the 6 percent for Asians whom one cannot imaging being called "statistically insignificant," despite their 2-3 percent national demographic. Of that 8 percent, the majority, 43 percent, voted for City Councilmember Antonio Villaraigosa; 26 percent for attorney Bob Hertzberg; 20 percent for Mayor Jim Hahn; 7 percent for Councilmember Bernard Parks; and 2 percent for state Sen. Richard Alarcon.

Hertzberg, Parks, and Alarcon subsequently endorsed Villaraigosa, who went on to significantly defeat Hahn in the general election. But the Times inexplicably failed to include the GLB vote, despite the fact that gay people were very supportive of Villaraigosa, and two openly gay candidates, Bill Rosendahl and Mike Gin, were also running against homophobic campaigns.

Which leads us to the IN LA poll. With the Christopher Street West Pride parade just days away, IN saw an opportunity to question a significant number of presumed gay people from Southern California. We constructed a range of questions to fit on one page and asked for quick input from Bob Witeck of Witeck-Combs, Inc., who has conducted many national surveys with Harris Interactive. For six hours on June 12, a handful of IN employees asked folks to fill out the anonymous poll. We collected 259 surveys, not all of which were filled out completely.

During the survey and afterwards, thanks to help from Gary Gates, the demographics expert at The Williams Project (www1.law.ucla.edu/~williamsproj/about/staff.html), we discovered several inadvertent mistakes. For instance, by considering West Hollywood as part of Greater Los Angeles, it was impossible to correctly gauge how many people did not vote in the L.A. mayor's race, and how many didn't vote because they were not eligible.

Additionally, we asked people if they felt they have a substance problem or behavior addiction to alcohol, crystal meth, or sex. Gates found two difficulties. "One, you included sex addiction with substance abuse. It's impossible to know to what extent respondents fell into those rather different groups," he said. "Second, while the results of your poll are anonymous, the collecting really wasn't in that you were there to see people filling out the form. That could definitely inhibit some from answering sensitive questions like those about addiction."

We also threw out a long question Gates considered misleading. And, despite our best efforts to allow for the widest range of self-identification, in the end we decided to simplify the categories and break the analysis down by age. (The full poll results will be available on our Web site, www.inlamag.com).

That said, here's what we found: Out of total of 259 respondents, 176 (68 percent) identified as Gay, 46 (18 percent) as lesbian, 15 (6 percent) as bisexual, 1 (0.4 percent) as transgender, and 21 (8 percent) as straight. There were 32 (12 percent) people between the ages of 18-25; 85 (33 percent) were between 26-35; 79 (30 percent) were between 36-45; 42 (16 percent) were between 46-55; and 21 (8 percent) were 56 and older.

More than 7 in 10 respondents -- 184 -- said they were out and open everywhere, while 60 respondents (23 percent) were only out at home, work, or with friends. The greater Los Angeles area was home to 211 (81 percent), while 11 (4 percent) came from Orange County, 7 (3 percent) from San Diego, 14 (5 percent) from the Inland Empire, and 16 (6 percent) were from outside Southern California.

Since IN has often reported on concerns by GLBT leaders about perceived political apathy within the GLBT community, we were surprised to see the high percentage (93 percent) of registered voters. But Gates holds a contrary view.

"Many, especially those opposed to GLBT rights, think that GLBT political influence far outweighs the size of the community," Gates said. " Social science surveys like the National Health and Social Life Survey and a recent national survey conducted by Statistics Canada, find that 2-3 percent of adults identify as GLB in the population. But voter exit polls consistently find that 4-5 percent of voters identify as such. This suggests that the GLB community comprises a larger portion within voters than within the general population. That all said, I do think your findings suggest that those surveyed are relatively politically motivated."

Of the 259 respondents, 241 (93 percent) were registered to vote, with 172 (66 percent) registered as Democrats, 14 (5 percent) as Republicans, 22 (14 percent) as Independents, and 14 (5 percent) with "other" political affiliations. Of those eligible to vote in the L.A. elections, 82 voted for winner Antonio Villaraigosa and nine voted for Mayor Jim Hahn. In the 2004 presidential elections, 209 voted for Sen. John Kerry and 18 voted for President George W. Bush.

It is also interesting to see how that breaks down by age. Among 18-25 year olds, 27 are registered to vote; 17 are registered Democrats; one as a Republican; five are Independents; and four are registered with "Others." Seven voted for Villaraigosa; three for Hahn.

Twenty-five voted for Kerry; one for Bush.

In the 26-35 age bracket, 75 are registered, 53 as Democrats, four as Republicans, 5 as Independents, and seven as others. 25 voted for Villaraigosa and two for Hahn. 70 voted for Kerry and seven voted for Bush.

In the 36-45 age category, 84 are registered; 54 as Democrats; 3 as Republicans; 5 as Independents; and two as Others. 18 voted for Villaraigosa and one for Hahn. 59 voted for Kerry and five for Bush.

Among 46-55 year olds, 34 are registered; 32 as Democrats; three as Republicans; five as Independents; and one as Others. 14 voted for Villaraigosa and 2 voted for Hahn. 37 voted for Kerry and 3 voted for Bush.

In the 56 and older crowd, 21 are registered; 16 as Democrats; 3 as Republicans; 2 as Independents and none as Others 11 voted for Villaraigosa and one for Hahn. 18 voted for Kerry and two voted for Bush.

Asked if a political candidate's positions on sexual orientation influence their vote, 220 said yes, and 36 said no. In the 18-25 age group, 26 said yes; 5 said no. Among 26-35 year olds, 68 said yes; 15 said no. In the 36-45 bracket, 65 said yes; 10 said no. In the 46-55 category, 42 said yes; five said no. And among those 56 and older, 19 said Yes; and one said no.

A slightly large number, 224, consider same sex marriage to be a civil rights issue, while 29 do not. Broken down by age, among the18-25 year olds, 27 said yes; five said no. In the 26-35 category, 73 said yes; nine said no. Among 36-45 year olds, 70 said yes; 11 said no. In the 46-55 category, 34 said yes; three said no. And among those 56 and older, 20 said yes and one said no.

Another surprising statistic, considering the battering the GLBT community is taking from the Vatican and Christian Evangelicals, is that 169 (65 percent) said they consider themselves to be religious or spiritual. Not surprising is that 177 said they do not regularly attend a church, synagogue or mosque. Gates notes that many more Americans express a belief for God than actually attend church but agrees that the data suggests that like their heterosexual counterparts, the GLBT community is hungry for a religious/spiritual connection. Outreach to the GLBT community by a variety of organized faiths like Episcopalians, Lutherans, and Presbyterians will likely yield some success.

Asked, "Do you consider yourself religious/spiritual?" 169 said yes, while 75 said No. Broken down by age, among18-25 year olds, 18 said Yes; 12 said No. In the 26-35 category, 63 said Yes; 22 said No. Among 36-45 year olds, 47 said Yes; 20 said No. Among ages 46-55, 25 said Yes; 16 said No. And among those 56 and older, 16 said Yes and 5 said No.

Asked if they attend a church, synagogue or mosque regularly, 177 respondents said No, while 67 said Yes. Broken down by age groups, among 18-25 year olds15 said Yes; 17 No. In the 26-35 category, 14 said Yes; 71 said No. Among 36-45 year olds, 18 said Yes; 46 said No. In the 46-55 group, 12 said Yes; 30 said No. And among those 56 and older, 8 said Yes and 13 said No.

Asked if they thought HIV/AIDS is still a crisis in Los Angeles, 235 respondents said Yes, while 10 said No. Broken down by age, in the 18-25 group, 30 said Yes; none said No. Among 26-35 year olds, 70 said Yes; 6 said No. In the 35-45 category, 75 said Yes; 2 said No. Among 46-55 year olds, 39 said Yes; 2 said No. And among those 56 and older, 21 said Yes and none said No.

Despite the crisis, 96 people feel HIV/AIDS preventions message do not work, though a majority, 154 respondents, think they do work. Broken down by age, among 18-25 year olds, 24 said Yes; 8 said No. In the 26-35 bracket, 50 said Yes; 34 said No. In the 36-45 group, 40 said Yes; 33 said No. In the 46-55 group, 27 said Yes; 15 said No. And, among those 56 and older, 13 said Yes and 6 said No.

We bluntly asked if people used crystal meth. Of 259 respondents, 234 said never, 14 said Occasionally, two said yes and eight Refused to answer. Breaking that down by age, in the 18-26 group, one said Yes; 2 said occasionally; 23 said never; and three refused to answer. In the 26- 35 category, one said yes; four said occasionally; 71 said never; and five refused to answer. Among 36-45 year olds, none said yes; six said occasionally; 73 said never; and none refused to answer. Among 46-55 year olds, none said yes; 2 said occasionally; 46 said never; and none refused to answer. Among those 56 and older, all 21 said they had never used crystal meth.

Regarding the aforementioned question about having a substance problem or an addition, 239 said no, 16 said yes, and four refused to answer. But Gates said he was shocked looking at the results by age. In the 18-25 category, Eight said yes; 21 said no; and one refused to answer. In the 26-35 bracket, two said Yes; 80 said No; and 3 refused to answer. In the 36-45 age category, six said yes; 74 said no; and none refused to answer. Age 46 to older all said they had no problem.

"I think your results highlight the addiction issue in the GLBT community," said Gates. "Half of those who identified an addiction were in the 18-25 age group and among that group a quarter indicated an addiction. That is pretty shocking."

Polls matter because they influence politicians and policy makers. And not collecting data about the GLBT community prompts policy makers, most of whom are straight, to not even think of GLBT people when making decisions. The four-year-old National Coalition for GLBT Health is trying to do something about this through their new Web site, GayData.org, designed to act as a "central repository for GLBT scientific information" regarding health-related issues.

Nonetheless, it would still be nice to be included in mainstream polls as a viable, vital community, as we think the IN poll illustrates we are.

 
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