Commentary by Karen Ocamb

With a nod to Bette Davis, fasten your seat belts, it's going to be a bumpy year! Scandals are threatening to hail down on Washington and the road ahead promises to be slick and slippery for the president and Congress, with the entire House of Representatives and one third of the Senate up for re-election, as are many governors and state legislators. The lead up to the June primaries and the November elections will surely be strewn with the debris of political corruption and potholes of negative campaigning. Meanwhile, the forecast for the California LGBT community is murky with patches of blue.

The year kicks off with a flurry of debates over constitutional issues and government corruption. Pennsylvania Republican Sen. Arlen Specter, chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee, has promised to hold hearings into whether President George W. Bush overstepped his authority by approving a domestic spying program without a court order. Bush has repeatedly defended his power to issue the on-going directive, saying his post-Sept. 11 order to the National Security Agency is "vital and necessary" to the country's safety.

The revelation in The New York Times caused outrage. Ron Hutcheson, White House correspondent for Knight Ridder Newspapers, told Editor and Publisher magazine that, "some legal experts asserted that Bush broke the law on a scale that could warrant his impeachment." The Justice Department launched a criminal investigation into who leaked the classified information about the program.

Meanwhile Charlie Savage of the Boston Globe noted on Huffingtonpost.com that, "When President Bush last week signed the bill outlawing the torture of detainees, he quietly reserved the right to bypass the law under his powers as commander in chief."

Washington insiders are also awaiting the fallout from the scandal involving Republican lobbyist Jack Abramoff. The once powerful dealmaker pleaded guilty to four federal charges and agreed to cooperate with a large-scale federal investigation into corruption by members of Congress.

According to the Washington Post, Abramoff conspired with others "to corruptly give, offer, and promise things of value, including money, meals, trips and entertainment, to public officials and their relatives" in exchange for official action benefiting Abramoff, his associates and their clients. The Post reported that the bribes and influence peddling "could become one of the largest corruption scandals in recent memory, involving as many as a half dozen lawmakers, a former top official at the Department of Interior, and former and current congressional aides."

The Post also reported that the scandal could ensnare others with whom Abramoff and his associates did business, including Religious Right stalwarts Rev. Lou Sheldon, head of the Traditional Values, whom Abramoff apparently called "Lucky Louie;" former Christian Coalition boss Ralph Reed, now a political consultant running for lieutenant governor of Georgia; and Orthodox Rabbi Daniel Lapin whose Orthodox Jewish foundation, Toward Tradition, often associates with the Christian Right. According to the Post, federal investigators say Sheldon, Reed, and Lapin secretly accepted money from gambling interests while espousing anti-gambling issues.

Another constitutional issue that will get a workout during the confirmation hearings for Supreme Court nominee Samuel A. Alito Jr. is the "right to privacy." Right wing conservatives such as Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia argue that there is no right to privacy'written into the U.S. Constitution, thus rendering as wrongly decided rulings on abortion and sodomy. The American Bar Association gave Alito, nominated to replace retiring moderate Justice Sandra Day O'Connor, a "well-qualified" rating, while the National Gay & Lesbian Task Force and other national LGBT political groups oppose his nomination, saying they do not believe Alito is committed to treating all Americans equally.

The new year forecasts a climate of confusion fast descending like a thick fog on an electorate still trying to figure out which way to go on the war in Iraq and budget and health-care concerns over the deficit and prescription drug coverage; whether to trust government bureaucracy after Katrinia; whether to forsake privacy for national security; whether to build a new Berlin Wall along the border with Mexico; and whether the courts, the church, or the people's elected representatives should decide such issues as same-sex marriage and medical marijuana.

And of course this year's political storm-watchers will debate who's hot and who's not in the Democratic and Republican parties and the best match-ups for '08 -- hard centrist Hillary versus Condi, Rudy, or John, none of whom tickles the fancy of the GOP's religious right. For dark horse bettors, there's Democratic former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner, who banned discrimination against gays in hiring and promotions just before he left office. On the GOP side, Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney's maybe/yes presidential candidacy recently hit a snag when religious conservatives questioned his right-wing credentials after discovering that, despite staunch opposition to gay marriage, Romney approved 189 requests for certificates by friends and family to officiate and solemnize one-day same-sex weddings.

As it was for Democratic presidential contender John Kerry in 2004, same-sex marriage will be a muddy minefield for Democratic and moderate Republican candidates in 2006. Kerry opposed the federal constitutional ban but said he favored state bans such as the one proposed in his home state of Massachusetts where same-sex marriage is now legal. As of Dec. 30, the gay Washington Blade reported that the Massachusetts Family Institute had 124,000 certified petition signatures, nearly double the required number, for a ballot measure in 2008. Massachusetts Rep. Barney Frank told the Associated Press that he predicted an "angry, divisive" fight if the proposed constitutional amendment qualified for the state ballot. Meanwhile other states -- including New Hampshire where prospective presidential candidates -- are now campaigning, are debating whether to add prohibitions against same-sex relationships to their constitutions. It is unclear what effect a positive ruling in a lawsuit over recognition of same-sex marriage by the Washington State Supreme Court will have on political races.

Last year's experience for California gays was akin to riding a roller coaster during a sun-shower: thrilled, holding on and looking for a rainbow. After an arduous struggle, the marriage equality bill passed, only to be vetoed by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who otherwise signed the majority of LGBT bills. When the prospect of two anti-gay marriage constitutional amendments popped up, the community devised the Equality for All campaign, a grassroots-up structure prepared to battle back at all levels, though so far without the critical one-phrase marketing message. There was momentary elation (see Community News) when the two anti-gay groups announced they halted their campaigns, soon replaced with the news that one had re-filed for the November 2006 ballot.

Anti-gay Campaign for Children and Families Director Randy Thomasson's VoteYesMarriage.com campaign has until the end of April to collect enough signatures for the November ballot, Geoff Kors, executive director of Equality California and executive committee member of Equality for All told IN. "And they know they can get $1 million from Focus on the Family in 24 hours. So we continue to move full steam ahead. The reason they're not fighting us now is because they're not focused and organized. We are focused and organized and we need to stay focused and organized. But they're not going away and giving up on California."

Additionally, the majority of state legislators who voted for the marriage equality bill are facing tough re-elections or are termed-out. That makes it all the more important, Kors said, that the LGBT community supports LGBT and pro-LGBT politicians in the coming elections.

"We need to play hardball in the primary and election and make sure we get a legislative majority who supports marriage equality and a governor who supports the bill," Kors said.

Whether it is to get into campaign mode or simply to shift into a different gear after the failure of his reform initiative package last year, a humbled Schwarzenegger clearly signaled he is moving back to the moderate middle, more independent of the conservative Republicans who thrive on bellicose positions. His appointment of openly gay Democrat Susan Kennedy, who said she voted for his initiatives, as his chief of staff, and the greater influence of his wife, Democrat Maria Shriver and her openly gay chief of staff Daniel Zingale, as well as the recent appointment of two Log Cabin members, suggest that the governor wants a clear cut distinction between himself and the rest of the right-wing-leaning conservative pack. It remains to be seen whether voters accept Schwarzenegger's kinder, gentler persona or conclude the move is just another role for the actor.

The governor will certainly benefit from the anticipated nasty fight between pro-gay Treasurer Phil Angelides and Controller Steve Westly, however, as they battle to be the Democratic gubernatorial candidate in the November election. At a recent holiday party hosted by Stonewall Democratic Club and featuring a number of candidates hoping for Stonewall's endorsement, an informal and off-the-record survey taken by IN revealed that the LGBT grassroots party activists are almost evenly split between Angelides and Westly. In recent elections, LGBT grassroots activists have proven to be as valuable as labor unions in supplying the much-needed volunteer base.

As in any political year, there are wildcards. Brokeback Mountain may win awards but will it change the hearts and minds of voters? Will Pope Benedict XVI's anti-gay edicts, including his New Year's Eve pronouncement against same-sex marriage, be taken seriously outside the confines of Vatican power? And will Katrina fade into memory or will its displaced citizens vote their anger? One rainbow on the horizon is the tenacity of gays and people with AIDS in New Orleans who continue to help their own. If you want to help, go to www.noaidstaskforce.com/index.php.